What is 'Money Supply'?
The money supply refers to the liquid assets that are held by
individuals - it includes coins, notes and demand deposits (cheque
accounts). What notes and coins are is clear - but what are demand
deposits? If you have a cheque account in which money was deposited -
the bank has to pay out deposits in cash on demand, or has to transfer
it immediately on demand to another bank or account holder. So - demand
deposits - the money in your cheque accounts, is as good as notes due to
immediacy with which the money becomes available. The money supply, in
simple terms, refers to all the money that is in circulation in an
economy, that is available to individuals to purchase goods or services
with.
Why does it matter how much money is in circulation?
The amount of money available in circulation has an influence on the
prices of goods and services. Remember the following from the blog-post
'Inflation - Part 1':
"In other words - whenever the amount of money in circulation increases
in an economy, the prices will go up. Check: the more money is available
in an economy, the less it is worth, which is reflected in higher
prices - because with the same amount of money in your pocket, you can
now purchase less stuff, which means that your money is not worth as
much as it used to anymore."
If the money supply keeps on increasing - so will prices - and the result will be inflation. Why?
Because - more money in circulation means more money available to people
to buy goods and services with. In other words: the demand for goods and
services goes up. If the demand for goods and services goes up (more
people are willing and able to buy goods and services), so do their
prices.
What factors influence the Money Supply?
1. Banks
The supply of money can be increased by increasing either the amount of
notes, coins or demand deposits. Banks play a crucial role within the
latter: banks have the ability to create money by increasing the amount
of demand deposits.
The question, then, is:
How are demand deposits created?
Firstly: if a person deposits, for instance, $100 in banknotes with a
bank, the bank will in return give the person a cheque book, which will
give the person the right to write out cheques to the value of $100.
Secondly - and more importantly: Banks noticed that the demand deposits
held by them were never all claimed/withdrawn at the same time.
They would always have demand deposits 'laying around'. They figured
that, instead of leaving the money to collect dust, they could lend this
money to other people and charge interest on the loan. This means: the
bank would give money to people who hadn't put money in the bank
beforehand.
In the First case, nothing actually happened to the money supply: $100
was deposited into a bank - and thus removed out of circulation. This
means the money supply decreased by $100. However, the bank issued a
cheque book of the value of $100, thereby again increasing the money
supply by $100. The money supply before the creation of the demand
deposit is thus the same as afterwards.
In the Second case, however, the money supply does change. Using the
same amount as an example: Someone deposits $100 into a bank. The bank
issues a cheque book of $100 - the money supply balances out. However,
of the $100 deposited, the bank decides to lend out $80 to someone who
needs and seems creditworhty enough (showing the capability to pay back
loans). Now the money supply has increased with $80. At first there was
just one person with $100 in their pocket, after the bank did its magic:
there was one person with a $100 cheque book and another person with
$80 of credit.
Is there a limit to the amount of money a bank can create?
Although small, there are limitations to the amount of money a bank can create.
At any time,
a bank must have sufficient cash reserves to be able to provide for
cash withdrawals. Secondly, a bank must be able to provide for claims of
other banks. What does this mean?
Remember our example of someone bringing in $100 in his bank and
receiving a cheque book of the value of $100. If this person writes a
cheque of $100 to his landlord, the landlord will go to his bank to cash
the cheque and receive $100 for it. The thing is that the landlord's
bank and the bank of the person who wrote the cheque, are not
necessarily the same one. A bank must therefore always make sure that it
is able to provide for the claims of other banks.
Individual banks don't decide how big a percentage of received deposits
they keep aside in the form of cash reserves - this is the job of the
monetary authorities: the central banks.
Let's say that the central bank dictates that at all times a bank is
obliged to hold 2.5% of their total demand deposits in the form of cash
resrves. We say that 2.5% or 0.025 is the 'cash reserve ratio'.
Taking again our example of someone depositing $100 at his bank - what
implication does a cash reserve ratio of 2.5% have in terms of limiting
the bank's ability to increase the money supply?
Firstly - consider what would happen without there being a cash reserve requirement:
Step 1: A person (Person A) deposits $100 at the bank and receives a cheque book of the value of $100.
--------> Money Supply: Nothing changed
Step 2: The bank lends out the $100 that was deposited to someone else (Person B).
--------> Money Supply: + $100.
Step 3: Person B deposits the $100 at his bank and receives a cheque book of the value of $100.
--------> Money Supply: still + $100.
Step 4: The bank lends the deposit Person B made and lends it out to Person C.
--------> Money Supply: + $200.
As you can see - the process could just keep on repeating itself until an endless amount of money is created.
What happens then in case of there being a cash reserve ratio of 2.5%?
Step 1: A person (Person A) deposits $100 at the bank and receives a cheque book of the value of $100.
--------> Money Supply: Nothing changed
Step 2: The bank keeps $2.5 dollars in reserve and lends out $97.5 to someone else (Person B).
--------> Money Supply: + $97.5
Step 3: Person B deposits $97.5 at his bank and receives a cheque book of the value of $97.5 in exchange.
--------> Money Supply: still sitting at +$97.5
Step 4: Bank keeps 2.5% of Person B's deposit in the form of cash reserves ($2.44) and lends out $95.06 to Person C.
--------> Money Supply: + $192.56
As you can see, with each deposit, the amount a bank can lend out decreases in comparison
to the initial amount of $100. There is thus a limit to the amount of
money that can be created this way. We can actually calculate how much
money will be in circulation if this process is continued until there is
nothing more to lend:
$100 * 1/0.025 = $100 * 40 = $4000
The initial $100 that was in circulation, the fractional reserve banking
system (which is what this banking system is called) can turn into
$4000 in circulation.
We continue on the subject of the money supply within the next blog.